In the past two years, the U.S. Government has invested large sums of money in:
$700 Billion in 700 banks.
$69 Billion in a couple of "green" companies.
$85 Billion in just two auto companies.
That is what economists call having an "Industrial Policy", which means the government has taken upon itself to select winners and losers among its industries.
While that is fine in THEORY (here we go again),but it is in complete defiance of hundreds of years of history. It just doesn't work!! And the reason is incredibly simple. The government has to make its decisions based on history.
But all the growth industries that will make the economy grow are all in the future, and all the evidence is that governments CANNOT identify them.
In the mid-1960's, it looked a little like MITI (Ministry of International Trade and Industry) in Japan has found the magic formula. They backed SONY, Panasonic, et al.
But in the end, they proved just as blind as every such government policy makers.
In a complete burst of hubris about their own omnipotence, they bargained hard to shut down Honda on the basis that Japan only needed two auto companies. After that, nobody much pays any attention to MITI.
Industrial policy is like placing your next bet in a poker game based on how the cards fell in the last hand. Good Grief!!
What do you call an organization that never learns from other's mistakes or even from its own mistakes?
Please send me your nominations and I will share them with everybody.
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