My Personal Hail Mary Pass

I read that President Obama reads ten letters from citizens every day. These letters are selected by readers who screen his mail. So on the first of every month, I send him this letter.


President Barack Obama
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue 20500
Washington DC 20500

Dear President Obama

I note the Washington Post story about your reading habits, and I understand that the odds of your reading this letter are roughly the same as my winning the lottery. Nevertheless, I have to try because the future of the country depends on your getting a better understanding of how the economy actually works.

But first, it is important to explain that I am heavily invested in your success as president. Here are two points to consider to that end.

One; I have been an ardent Obama supporter since the day you stood on the court house steps and declared your candidacy. I attended meetings, held up a sign (and met you in San Diego), telephoned voters in Texas, South Dakota, California, contributed almost every month, and spent election day driving little old ladies to vote. You can see I have a large interest in having you succeed.

Two; you have made some brilliant appointments that are producing great results. Hilary Clinton, George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke have changed the way the world looks at us. Robert Gates is showing a real determination to get Defense expenditures under control. Janet Napolitano was a perfect choice for that monstrosity, Home Land Defense. Kathleen Sebelius, Ray LaHood and Eric Shinseki are all inspired appointments who seem to be doing a great job.

My personal favorite is Arne Duncan, the first human being to stick a finger in the eye of the teacher’s union, and the NCAA!

And your efforts to rein in nuclear material are splendid.


Now to my point to you; I have heard you say again and again that we have to end this Bubble and Bust economy.

And that is a profoundly erroneous idea. In five hundred years of experience with every developed economy in the world, no one has ever found that “magical” point of equilibrium where everyone lives happily ever after. It simply does not exist in the real world. Every economy is always in one of two states; the economy is either expanding or contracting.

Now here is the absolutely crucial point; the Business Cycle is driven by psychology, not finance. For awhile, the economy expands and most everybody thinks things will be great forever. Consider “irrational exuberance”. Then somebody thinks things are going to get bad and everyone piles on. Consider Henry Paulson and “the world’s economy will collapse if we don’t rescue Goldman Sachs”.

David Zetland (PhD, University of California) and I (DBA, University of Southern California) have written a short book that explains the Business Cycle in more detail and offers policy recommendations that are founded on an understanding of the reality of the Business Cycle. I read somewhere that you prefer evidence based policies. Here is a perfect example of five hundred years of experience. Not a single economic theory in sight.

I would be delighted to send you a digital copy of our book, The Great Recession Conspiracy, if you provide an email address. The hundred pages are easy to read and they will change the way you look at economic policy forever.

Now I am going to check my lottery ticket.

Very truly yours