The Administration is announcing the end of the recession because of an uptick in consumer spending. The problem with that idea is the sources of that spending. It turns out that a significant amount of the new spending is being done by that 10% of the population that get over 20% of the total income, e.g. the richie rich, and they are spending it on luxuries. The other source of new spending is coming from families who have simply stopped paying on their mortgages even though they have the income to make the payments. They simply stop paying because their homes are so far underwater. HUD estimates that 10% of delinquent home owners have stopped making payments. That means there are hundreds of thousands of families with extra income about $1,500 a month, and that is a large amount of money to support the uptick, but it is not sustainable.
And finally, consumer confidence is at an all time low.
As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over until it is over">
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