The Gullible Center
By PAUL KRUGMAN
So, can we talk about the Paul Ryan phenomenon?
And yes, I mean the phenomenon, not the man. Mr. Ryan, the chairman of
the House Budget Committee and the principal author of the last two
Congressional Republican budget proposals, isn’t especially interesting.
He’s a garden-variety modern G.O.P. extremist, an Ayn Rand devotee who
believes that the answer to all problems is to cut taxes on the rich and
slash benefits for the poor and middle class.
No, what’s interesting is the cult that has grown up around Mr. Ryan —
and in particular the way self-proclaimed centrists elevated him into an
icon of fiscal responsibility, and even now can’t seem to let go of
their fantasy.
The Ryan cult was very much on display last week, after President Obama
said the obvious: the latest Republican budget proposal, a proposal that
Mitt Romney has avidly embraced, is a “Trojan horse” — that is, it is
essentially a fraud. “Disguised as deficit reduction plans, it is really
an attempt to impose a radical vision on our country.”
The reaction from many commentators was a howl of outrage. The president
was being rude; he was being partisan; he was being a big meanie. Yet
what he said about the Ryan proposal was completely accurate.
Actually, there are many problems with that proposal. But you can get the gist if you understand two numbers: $4.6 trillion and 14 million.
Of these, $4.6 trillion is the revenue cost over the next decade of the
tax cuts embodied in the plan, as estimated by the nonpartisan Tax
Policy Center. These cuts — which are, by the way, cuts over and above
those involved in making the Bush tax cuts permanent — would
disproportionately benefit the wealthy, with the average member of the
top 1 percent receiving a tax break of $238,000 a year
.
Mr. Ryan insists that despite these tax cuts his proposal is “revenue
neutral,” that he would make up for the lost revenue by closing
loopholes. But he has refused to specify a single loophole he would
close. And if we assess the proposal without his secret (and probably
nonexistent) plan to raise revenue, it turns out to involve running
bigger deficits than we would run under the Obama administration’s
proposals.
Meanwhile, 14 million is a minimum estimate of the number of Americans
who would lose health insurance under Mr. Ryan’s proposed cuts in
Medicaid; estimates by the Urban Institute actually put the number at
between 14 million and 27 million.
So the proposal is exactly as President Obama described it: a proposal
to deny health care (and many other essentials) to millions of
Americans, while lavishing tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy —
all while failing to reduce the budget deficit, unless you believe in Mr. Ryan’s secret revenue sauce. So why are centrists rising to Mr. Ryan’s defense?
Well, ask yourself the following: What does it mean to be a centrist, anyway?
It could mean supporting politicians who actually are relatively
nonideological, who are willing, for example, to seek Democratic support
for health reforms originally devised by Republicans, to support
deficit-reduction plans that rely on both spending cuts and revenue
increases. And by that standard, centrists should be lavishing praise on
the leading politician who best fits that description — a fellow named
Barack Obama.
But the “centrists” who weigh in on policy debates are playing a
different game. Their self-image, and to a large extent their
professional selling point, depends on posing as high-minded types
standing between the partisan extremes, bringing together reasonable
people from both parties — even if these reasonable people don’t
actually exist. And this leaves them unable either to admit how moderate
Mr. Obama is or to acknowledge the more or less universal extremism of
his opponents on the right.
Enter Mr. Ryan, an ordinary G.O.P. extremist, but a mild-mannered one.
The “centrists” needed to pretend that there are reasonable Republicans,
so they nominated him for the role, crediting him with virtues he has
never shown any sign of possessing. Indeed, back in 2010 Mr. Ryan, who
has never once produced a credible deficit-reduction plan, received an
award for fiscal responsibility from a committee representing several
prominent centrist organizations.
So you can see the problem these commentators face. To admit that the
president’s critique is right would be to admit that they were snookered
by Mr. Ryan, who is the same as he ever was. More than that, it would
call into question their whole centrist shtick — for the moral of my
story is that Mr. Ryan isn’t the only emperor who turns out, on closer
examination, to be naked.
Hence the howls of outrage, and the attacks on the president for being
“partisan.” For that is what people in Washington say when they want to
shout down someone who is telling the truth.
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