Everything Changes, All The Time

This week's Economist has a paragraph that bears some thought. It goes like this:

"Two decades ago Japan accounted for 14% of the global economy. It is now worth 8%. In 1988 eight of the top ten companies by value and eight of the top ten banks were Japanese; today none makes either list."

Two decades ago I conducted business strategy seminars around the world and the one visual that I used that got more response than any other was the one with these data showing Japanese companies taking over the world.

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, forecasting is really hard to do, especially when it is about the future.